- When we talk about the disintegration or collapse of societies, we mean a significant and drastic change in our existing living conditions.

People who see this process as so likely that it is essentially inevitable or already unfolding use the term "deep down" to describe the process of finding answers. Deep, because it goes beyond the superficial, physical approach of "adapting to climate change", focusing on our own inner journey, as we will all have to deal with the spiritual burden of the difficulties that lie ahead. As people from all walks of our world and life become increasingly aware of the direction of events, they are gripped by anxiety and fear.

As the effects of climate chaos unfold, panic may lead to extreme responses from some. The mission of the 'Deep Appalachia' initiative is to help us find loving responses to our predicaments, thereby reducing the pain we face and perhaps saving something of our societies and natural environment.

- This is not very encouraging... but can people overcome their limitations and reverse these processes?

- We cannot stop it.

We cannot reverse it. Nor can we slow it down in any meaningful way. We have no choice but to adapt to accelerating change. Man as a mass is not able to transcend his own shadow, and especially in difficult circumstances, to make significant sacrifices in defence of higher values. The process is inevitable, because humanity cannot do enough, fast enough, to maintain and protect its own water and food supply from environmental impacts.

- Does this mean that food problems are also to be expected?

- Over the last three years, European agricultural yields have fallen by an average of 20-30%. Only three crops - wheat, maize and rice - account for nearly 60% of the calories consumed by humanity. Only 12 plant species and 5 animal species account for 75% of the food produced on Earth. At least 3-4 of the 4-5 major cereal producing regions of the world will be exposed to severe weather extremes that will have a profound impact on their productivity within the next 5-15 years.

And our global food reserves, if they were evenly distributed (and they never have been), would last for 103 days. If we eat the reserves for livestock, the number of days is 247...

 

- But what is the reason for the irreversibility of the process?

 

- We are heading inexorably down a road from which we cannot, despite our best intentions, turn back. But in fact... we don't want to. There are many reasons for this. I will mention three really important ones. The first and most important is the human being.

On the savannah, in the days of our ancestors, survival depended on squeezing as much as possible from available resources, taking short-term advantage, thinking locally, dominating one's environment, making one's own and one's smaller group's daily life as comfortable as possible, and confronting rival tribes. This programme is still running and we are no longer able to transcend it at the level of the masses.

 

The second one-way dead end in the course of our destiny is energy. For the energy strategy on which industrial civilization was built has failed.

The fact is that we are about to fall into the so-called energy gap.
Existing hydrocarbon reserves are dwindling, and the less that is available, the more it costs to extract it. Our non-energy resources, such as minerals, drinking water, arable land, are also dwindling.

 

And finally, the third factor is the scale and speed of the processes that surround us. There are three basic concepts we need to be aware of in this context. The first is Overshoot. In short, it is when the population and consumption of a population - in this case, humanity - exceeds the sustainable carrying capacity of its environment.

The second is the Feedback Loop. By positive feedback we mean when the elements of the process interact with each other so that it is self-generating.

The third is the so-called Tipping Point. This is when the state of a process reaches a critical stage from which it becomes self-sustaining and can no longer be reversed.

 

- What will be the consequences of these processes?

 

- As a result of the climate change process, we distinguish between primary consequences and secondary effects. In the case of the former, it is simply that extreme weather events will increase significantly in frequency and intensity. They are striking with a frequency and intensity not previously experienced.

 

Over the past two decades, heat waves have increased by 33%, floods by 20% and droughts by 17%, according to one study. And the process will really accelerate from this decade onwards.

 

In the case of secondary impacts, more than 460 impacts have already been identified in an excellent systematic way. These cover every aspect of our lives: food and water, health, infrastructure, economy and security. The latter will be felt very soon. In the very areas where population growth will be highest in the period ahead, the impossibility of life could force hundreds of millions of people to leave their homelands. And when so many people set off, they will arrive at the cost of millions of deaths, enough to have an impact.

 

And it is only a matter of time before wars break out over dwindling resources. Just as in the time of our ancestors, only this time not with a stone axe.

- What will this mean for our daily lives, for our societies?

- When we see the increasingly extreme mass movements in the world's major cities, let us not lose sight of one thing: the risks and the events that are expected have not yet materialised... there is water and energy, food is available in the shops, public safety, the banking system has not collapsed, and there is a very high level of health care.

So, when we see masses of people taking to the streets because they are dissatisfied with their lot in life, and expressing this by breaking, smashing, setting fires... and behaving in an extremely violent way, let us wonder what will happen when all these things happen?

What can we expect from the vast masses of our fellow human beings when they have nothing to eat and the ghost money they thought they had is no longer available to them? And, finally, do we have any idea, based on what we are experiencing now, how close this might be to our present lives?

 

- Ouch. I can almost only think, what am I going to do now, what will happen to me?!

- Almost everyone who is facing their future has these questions. And although I feel that people need some level of answers, anyone who offers people a solution, a hopeful promise of hope (in the wonderful English term 'hopium'), is deceiving them. Yes, they are deceiving... because they are depriving them of the opportunity to face reality honestly and courageously and make the really important decisions about their lives.

- How to adapt deeply?

- There are two ways of deep adaptation...

Internal adaptation: exploring the emotional, intellectual and spiritual consequences of a life characterised by permanent damage to the fabric of society or a complete breakdown of its systems.

External adaptation: the development of practical measures to enable a viable life to be created during and after the collapse of society.

Deep Adaptation" uses four concepts, known as the 4Rs, and their associated questions to show the steps and tasks that need to be taken in the adaptation process. These are:

- Resilience: How do we keep what we value and don't want to lose?

- Relinquishment: What do we need to let go of in order not to make things worse for ourselves and others?

- Restoration: What do we need to bring back into our lives to help us to face the difficulties that come?

- Reconciliation: With whom or with what do we need to be reconciled, once we have truly realised our own mortality?

Understanding and coming to terms with the possibility of collapse is an emotionally demanding process. The most important support can come from seeking the company of others in similar situations.

It is liberating to know that we are not alone, that we can share our thoughts with others who can exchange further information and experiences with us.

- This is undoubtedly true. But is the necessary information available in Hungarian? Where can someone who is not very good in foreign languages start?

- It is a real pleasure for me that Deep Adaptation Hungary on Facebook has become the second largest and most active group in the international Deep Adaptation network. And the Hungarian language website is already under construction. We need to step out of the enchanted world of social media and overcome the addiction it represents.

We are going to create a forum that answers most of the questions people have about the unfolding social breakdown.

More importantly, a platform where they can organize themselves both geographically and thematically, walk around a particular topic, where anyone who aspires to be prepared can learn the basics of adaptation.

We've launched the Betyáros Világ podcast because it's becoming clear to more and more of us... this is exactly what we can expect.

And if we're going to live in a world that's changing beyond recognition, we're going to need virtues like outlaw honour. So what the Beagle World can really help us with is inner preparation. To deal with the issue, to know the facts, to embrace the change. Because that is a prerequisite for understanding the challenge. And that is the first step on the road to awareness.

We have also created the Cassandra Programme, whose mission is to enable any organisation, community or individual to prepare for the fact that, as a result of a combination of many factors, our living conditions will change significantly and we will have to adapt to the new conditions to the best of our ability and intentions in order to maintain a livable life.

- I wish I could forget the whole conversation... it will be difficult to concentrate on my ordinary little life...

- As we become more aware of the context that threatens our existence, the more we feel the urge to deal with the everyday, the so-called "real" things instead. But as time goes on, it becomes harder and harder to deny what we experience, because as our attention turns to reality, we will see its justification everywhere, both locally and around the world. I believe that anyone is free to make any decision about their life - less so if they are a parent - and that it is not good or bad, but theirs. But they can only do so authentically in the light of having faced reality squarely and made a decision one way or the other with that in mind.

  

As time goes on and the processes unfold before our eyes, more and more of us will be at a loss, with questions to ask, and how many of us will then be there to support the other may well be the difference between fate and destiny... Let us never forget: all we can decide is what to do with the time we have been given.