16 Dec 2022 - Robert C. Castel Europe has put all its eggs in one basket and is not winning Weeks Originals
Robert C. Castel, security policy expert and senior fellow at Neokohn:
"If Europe puts all its eggs in one basket, and if it loses with Ukraine, it will be left without protection"
Robert C. Castel's new book, Vertical Coffin, came off the press a week ago, but is practically sold out.
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Today's topics:
Ukrainian assessments of the state of the war
Valeriy Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told the British business paper The Economist that ten generals have been dismissed from the Ukrainian army since the war began in February, and one has committed suicide.
How can this statement be assessed from the point of view of the Ukrainian army? Are the 10 generals too many or too few compared to the current staff?
The commander-in-chief did not give any details about the reasons for the dismissals. What can we think might have happened?
According to the Commander-in-Chief's information, the Russians are preparing about 200,000 more troops for deployment to Ukraine, and the Russian army has about 1.2-1.5 million in reserve, and the Russian mobilisation so far has worked and those mobilised are ready to fight.
This is a fairly realistic assessment compared to the usual Ukrainian propaganda and cheerleading. What can be concluded from this?
Could the commander-in-chief have been sending a message either inwards or outwards? And if so, what?
Zaluzhny said that he had no doubt that the Russian army would again attempt an offensive against Kiev.
Are there really any signs that the Russians will revisit the original scenarios, say around the one-year anniversary of the war?
In the light of this, how seriously can this Ukrainian "all back" objective be taken?
Volodymyr Zelensky has asked the leaders of the European Union's twenty-seven member states to consider what more they can do to improve Ukraine's air defence systems.
What can the European Union do for Ukraine's air defences? So far, the Ukrainians have been demanding US Patriot missiles and Israel's Vaskupola system, and now they are turning to the EU, but is there anything Europe can offer in this area?
In what ways could the next six months be decisive? What can be decided that has not been decided in the last 10 months?
Zelensky also said that thanks to EU support so far, "Ukraine and Europe as a whole have been strengthened, Kiev has found effective answers to all anti-European challenges".
Do European leaders really believe that Russia would not stop at Berlin and Paris?
The whole year has been spent drawing up more and more sanctions packages, more and more lists, and now the ninth has been adopted. How long can this continue?
In the meantime, perhaps the biggest corruption scandal in the history of the Union has broken out, and we have not yet seen the full extent of it. If Qatar could so easily buy left-wing EU leaders for a few suitcases of money and some luxury trinkets, what guarantee is there that other countries have not done the same? Can the EU even be taken seriously in the eyes of the world?
Russian assessments
Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) will fall by about 2.5 percent by the end of 2022, not by 20 percent as many had predicted, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said.
Apparently, the expectations that Russia would bleed out in the war and that, if not the Ukrainian army, then the starving and freezing Russian masses would decide Putin's rule, have been proved completely wrong. Are Western politicians and analysts that miscalculated?
The delivery of US Patriot missile defence systems to Ukraine increases the risk of the US military becoming directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine, according to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
What is the Patriot system for? And what could the Ukrainians do with it? Why might it increase the risk of escalation?
What would have to happen for Russia and Ukraine to give up their current positions?
Megatrendek
During the week, he gave a quick assessment of the 12 megatrends triggered by the war for the weekly Weekly. Let me highlight some of these, which were not about the balance of military power, but about changes in the balance of power between world powers.
Spectator questions
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