20 Mar 2023 - Robert C. Castel What spring brings in Kiev and Moscow, East and West Weeks Originals
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It's a busy time, with President Putin under arrest at the International Criminal Court and Donald Trump preparing to be arrested within days, while negotiations are ongoing in Moscow and Brussels.
On today's Originals of the Week, we spoke to security expert Robert C. Castel about the twists and turns that could be in store this spring.
Topics of discussion:
Drone war over the Black Sea
According to a report today, the Russians have once again attempted to destroy a drone over the Black Sea, but this time without success, as a Russian Air Force SZU-27 failed to shoot down the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone used by the Ukrainians.
- Has the Russian air force become more active in recent weeks? What can we know about the incident with the US Reaper drone?
- No one was killed in this incident. Can it be said that the war has shifted, at least in part, to the technological arena? Or has it increased the risk of escalation?
Putin in Mariupol
- For the first time since the outbreak of the war, he went to Ukrainian territory. Who was this visit for?
- Could the arrest warrant from the Hague tribunal have any practical significance? Does it limit Putin's international contacts? For example, South Africa will be obliged to arrest the Russian President if Vladimir Putin visits the country in August.
- Is Donald Trump also afraid of being arrested, is this likely to be the way to eliminate rentier leaders in the future?
Balance of the Battle of Bakmut
- The Ukrainian resistance continues, what does it mean? Is President Zelensky's tactic to buy time successful?
Ukrainian counter-offensive
- What is at stake for the warring parties in Ukraine's planned southern campaign? And what is needed?
Borell plan for European arms supplies
On 20 March, the Foreign Affairs Council of EU foreign and defence ministers will meet. Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, proposes that Member States should jointly procure ammunition, like vaccines. According to Bloomberg, Ukraine wants to purchase one million rounds of ammunition this year, at an estimated cost of 4 billion euros, or almost 1,600 billion forints.
- What could this accelerated arms build-up mean for Europe?
- France wants ammunition to be sourced exclusively from Europe, not from the United States. Will this strengthen or weaken NATO? Could this be a test of the break between NATO and Europe?
- Arms deliveries are stalling, and in Slovakia there has been much controversy following the announcement by Prime Minister Eduard Heger of the delivery of 12 Mig-29s to Ukraine. And the Finnish prime minister has had to withdraw his promise of F-16s after it emerged he had not consulted the government on the matter. What does this growing opposition mean?
Poland says it may have to enter the war
Poland's ambassador to France says Ukrainians are fighting for the fundamental values and culture of the West, so if Ukraine finds itself in a difficult situation and can no longer defend itself and its independence, it will have no choice but to enter the war as a participant.
Russia-China summit
Chinese Premier Xi Jinping will arrive in Russia on Monday for a three-day state visit.
- How does he assess the rapprochement between Russia and China?
- What conditions can China impose?
- Can Putin ask Beijing for military support?
20 years since the Iraq war began
- What lessons can be drawn from this in the light of time?
Viewer questions
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