21 Jun 2023 - Robert C. Castel Miert thwarts Ukrainian counter-offensive

Current, new broadcast with security analyst Robert C Castel on 21.06.2023
At the end of the show, we also ask what Robert C. Castel thinks about András Rácz's latest crude message
Today's topics:
01:05 Terror attacks in Israel
03:44 Defence lines and the Ukrainian counter-attack
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has stalled, says one view, another says the Russian first and second lines of defence have been breached, and a third says the real counter-offensive has not even begun.
07:55 Debates of faith aside, what can we responsibly conclude about the current state of the offensive?
Have the Ukrainians deployed all their forces, or are they reserving for the possibility that they can break through somewhere and then concentrate their spared forces there? Is there any chance of that?
15:12 Topic: Russian air superiority
To counterattack, the Ukrainians would need defenses against Russian attack helicopters. If they cannot destroy them in the air, why not attack airfields and helicopter bases?
18:55 Topic: endgame / exit strategy
Has the stalemate changed for the entire front line?
If it turns out that the momentum and strength has run out, who and how will signal this to President Zelensky?
Is there a perceived intention to bring Poles or others to fight alongside the Ukrainians on a voluntary, non-NATO basis?
If not, what might be the exit strategy?

24:35 Topic: Russian nuclear threat
How has the NATO-Russian nuclear balance changed with the deployment of nuclear weapons in Belarus?
What could be the balance of war if we contrast NATO enlargement with Russian strategy?
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Russians have planted explosives at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. Kirilo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, said that Russian soldiers had planted mines at strategic points of the plant, even in the cooling system. If this is what really happened, what sense can this make to the Russians?
30:45 Topic: NATO summit in Vilnius
Jens Stoltenberg says Ukraine will not be invited to Vilnius. This is a realistic decision, but obviously a disappointment for Ukraine. What can they do about it?
But Sergei Lavrov says NATO is already playing a dangerous and hopeless game with its ambitions to dominate all regions of the world, including Eurasia. He also said that "NATO will have to recognise the reality of a multipolar world order without any 'commanders in chief' or 'supreme judges'." But doesn't Russia aspire to the same kind of dominance, but at most it doesn't have the power or the allies?
34:30 Topic: the economic balance of war
Oxford researcher Christopher Davis says there is a big difference in the cost of war, with Russia's GDP falling by only about 2% in 2022, while Ukraine's fell by at least 35%. The European Union is giving Ukraine €50 billion, mostly as a gift, which will require it to adopt a new budget and borrow tens of billions of euros from member states. How long can Europeans' coffers be stretched?
38:12 The mandatory refugee quota is another burden for Europe, while Germany's population has already increased by 1.3 million people in 2022, according to last year's figures, while the number of ethnic Germans has decreased. What will be the consequence of this, for example, will migrants be conscripted into the German, French, Dutch etc. armies?
40:15 Topic.
Ukraine claims that Hungary has taken Ukrainian soldiers hostage. How unusual is such an indirect exchange of POWs?
42:17 Viewer questions
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How did Robert C. Castel see the war unfolding?
This series is an edited compilation of previous episodes of the Weeks Originals podcast
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