21 Oct 2022 - Robert C. Castel The Zhirinovsky Doctrine, Shiite Apocalypse and the Coalition of Dictatorships Weeks
?What comes after the Russian-Ukrainian war? 40 minutes of geopolitics from a future perspective
On Friday afternoons on Weeks Originals, we talk to security analyst Robert C. Castel from Jerusalem
Our first topic today is the active involvement of another dangerous actor, Iran, in the Russia-Ukraine war and its possible consequences.
Israeli Ambassador to Israel Yakov Hadas-Handelsman told the Week that he is very concerned about the deployment of Iranian drones in Ukraine by Russia: "We fear that they may now be gaining operational experience that could ultimately be used against Israel."
Let us first clarify perhaps the basic situation:
When did Iranian drones appear in the war? What are these kamikaze drones, marked Shahed-136, for? What technological level do they represent compared to the military technology currently in use on the Ukrainian front?
And what level do they represent in the Iranian weapons programme? Why doesn't Russia have (enough) of them? What have been the results of their deployment so far? Can we expect them to play a greater role in military operations than they have done so far? Does Ukraine have/receive similar equipment from donor countries?
What additional operational experience can Iran gain from the deployment of drones on the battlefield?
To what extent would these devices pose a threat to Israel? And from where could they deploy them?
Are Iranian drones in the hands of terrorist groups (Hamas/Hezbollah/ISIS)?
And one more question on drones: on the night of 11 March, an incident occurred when a TU-141 military drone flew over Hungary for 40 minutes and crashed in a car park in Zagreb. As far as I know, it has still not been established who launched this drone, from where and why. Do you have any information?
Topic: Iran's military-political strategy
On the one hand, Iran is seen as the guardian of ancient Persian traditions, which invented chess and always acts rationally, patiently and thinking several moves ahead of its opponents. On the other hand, the fanatical regime of the Shiite ayatollahs believes in apocalyptic, doomsday scenarios, waiting for the Islamic messiah to lead them to victory. Which is the real Iran?
Has the Iranian regime changed since the return of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979?
As early as 2011, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed in an official report that Iran was seeking to build a nuclear bomb. Since then, we have heard various estimates of how far Iran is from obtaining a nuclear bomb. They usually say 1-3 years, but 11 years have passed and Iran is not yet known to have a nuclear bomb.
Who was wrong then: the IAEA? Israel? or has Iran changed its strategy in the meantime? Have sanctions slowed down the process so much?
Israel moved swiftly against Iraq's nuclear programme in 1981, and in Syria in the early 2000s, too, little action was expected. There was also much talk of a pre-emptive strike against Iran, but it never materialised. Is there still any chance militarily of such a move? And if so, should Israel seek permission from the US or NATO?
Topic: Russian-Iranian relations
The Soviet Union supported Khomieni's Islamic revolution. What happened after the collapse of the Soviet Union? Has the regional strengthening of Iran in recent years hurt or helped Putin? Does Iran have a problem with Russia allowing Israel to regularly attack Iranian arms shipments in Syria? What turnaround occurred after the Tehran tripartite Raissi-Erdogan-Putin summit in July?
Could Russian-Iranian relations deepen? Could Tehran in future ask Moscow for help in return, say in Syria?
Topic: Russian geopolitical strategy
In the early 1990s, the recently deceased Vladimir Zhirinovsky had a famous geopolitical concept to save Russia, entitled "The Final Assault (or Final Strike) on the South". It reads. Because when other parties talk about the need to cut off Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, they do not understand that Russia is being squeezed into the tundra, where there are only mineral deposits and nothing can live and develop." This Zhirinovsky plan has been largely forgotten in the last 30 years, because nothing has come of it, and Russia has been pushed back, if not into the tundra, then certainly into the West, against NATO. Perhaps Putin has dusted off this old plan a little?
(The Zhirinovsky plan, see here: https://beszelo.c3.hu/cikkek/vegso-roham-delre)
Image source: Shutterstock/Puzzlepix
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