28 Jun 2023 - Robert C. Castel Caution is justified in the Kremlin and in the West after the Wagner riots

Robert C. Castel, security policy expert: The Prigozhin rebellion continues in the information space
Landscape after the battle
According to US intelligence, General Sergei Surovikin knew of Prigozhin's plans to rebel and other senior Russian military officials supported the rebellion. However, Surovikin denounced the mutiny before Prigozhin had turned back his troops. Is this hypothesis realistic, or is it just a way of exacerbating the crisis of confidence in the Kremlin?
However, US intelligence was also allegedly aware of the plans. Only Putin would not have known?
It was Defence Minister Sergei Soygu who replaced Surovkin, known as General Armageddon, with Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. Was there a military reason for this? Did Surovikin perform badly at the front?
Putin thanked him for his loyalty. Will there be a purge of those who were undecided?
How would you assess the crisis management? Who deserves the credit for the lack of bloodshed?
Prigozhin is gone, but the biggest loser in the rebellion is Vladimir Putin, writes one analyst. Has Putin really lost? Cracks and fissures in the Kremlin facade - as Foreign Minister Blinken put it. Are there any?
There will be another Prigozhin - he had soldiers, but he failed. There is no military or political opposition in the system, so where can a second Prigozhin emerge from?
The Ukrainians did not take advantage of the 24 hours of confusion, they were supposedly stopped by the Americans. Would they have gone headlong into the wall?
Russian nuclear strategy shift?
Even before the attempted coup, the debate in the Russian press was already heating up about whether it would be justified to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Europe. Sergei Karaganov, one of Putin's old comrades-in-arms and propagandists, has put forward a series of arguments as to why we should not be afraid to attack with nuclear bombs.
Russia's international position? Iran, Turkey
Moscow has seen no street fighting, but Paris is in flames. Can any conclusions be drawn from this parallel?
Counter-attack - back to the grey, warlike everyday life
Zelensky says they are moving in all directions - what does this show on the maps?
Is there any sign that the Ukrainians can or will ramp up their offensive? What reserves do they have for this?
Viewer questions
How did Robert C. Castel see the course of the war unfolding?
This series is an edited compilation of previous episodes of the Weeks Originals podcast
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