4 Nov 2022 - Putin and the Russian empire will overrun Ukraine_ _ Weeks Originals _ Robert C. Castel

0:00 "It is important to understand that the West is not at war with an ageing ex-KGB uncle, but with the Russian empire, and it is important to understand this, with all the geopolitical weight of the matter. If President Putin disappears tomorrow, nothing will change. There is a Russian elite that does not want to see a NATO rapprochement on its borders, and I find it hard to imagine a Russian elite that would welcome such a Russian rapprochement, just as the American elite would not welcome the Chinese deploying missile bases in Canada near the Great Lakes or in Mexico on the south side of the Rio Grande. It's only natural, it's the way all the great powers do it," said Robert C. Castel, security policy expert and senior fellow at Neokohn, in a podcast interview with the Week.
Other topics covered in the interview:
0:59 Israeli election
Diplomatic and economic sanctions against Israel are on the table if the new government includes "extremist" members.
- How can sanctions be imposed simply because someone is not sympathetic to the result of a democratic, free election? Is this not precisely the devaluation of democracy that we were talking about a few weeks ago?
4:11 What are the consequences if democracies want to use sanctions to override the decision of the electorate?
7:15 The North Stream inquiry
- The investigation into the North Stream 1 pipeline incident has been completed, it has become clear that several powerful explosions occurred, deep craters were created on the seabed and 250 metres of the pipeline were destroyed. Billions of dollars in economic and environmental damage have been caused, but no one is responsible, and there is little search for them in the West. Can this be seen as an indirect admission? In particular, the leak of Liz Truss's text message, allegedly sent to Anthony Blinken a minute after the explosion. And if so, what could have been the motive: to further blacken Russia with a false flag operation? Or was it to send a message to Germany that no more dealings with the Russians?
11:50 Persons and war
- Looking at the 9 months of war so far, what can you say about how each leader has performed? (Putin, Zelensky, Biden, Macron, Scholz, Johnson/Truss/Sunak, Erdogan, Xi, Pope Francis)
- Can it be said that in general, in the aftermath of war, national leaders have been valorised over the leaders of supranational institutions (UN - Guterres, EU - von der Leyen)?
27:02 Migration and war
- What is the impact of the 15 million people who have fled Ukraine on Ukraine and the host countries? Zelensky asked them not to go back because they would only put a strain on the infrastructure.
- Following the example of Syria, what can be done with a country that is being ravaged and emptied by war?
32:10 The outcome of the war
- In a post on your blog you analyse the impact of sanctions on the outcome of the war. Why are you pessimistic about their effectiveness?
- You also analyse statistics from past conflicts on the likely outcome of war. What conclusions can be drawn from these?
33:28 It now seems as if neither side is expecting defeat. Based on historical examples, what has turned the tide in a protracted war?
35:05 How has the military-war situation changed? A change of leadership (death of a king or a coup)? A break in the morale of the population in the wake of suffering? How are these manifested in the current war?
37:06 Viewer questions
Robert C. Castel interviews and analyses all:

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