6 Jan 2023 - Robert C. Castel Russian air force could overwhelm Ukrainian resistance Weeks Originals
In the latest edition of Weeks Originals, we asked Robert C. Castle about the likely developments of the Ukrainian-Russian war in 2023.
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Sovereignty issues
- War here, war there Israel is once again the biggest problem for the UN, with the General Assembly taking a Palestinian initiative to refer Israel to the Hague tribunal over the "occupied territories", and China and the UAE calling for a Security Council meeting over an Israeli minister's walk on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. In 2022, the UN condemned Israel more times than all other states in the world combined, including all the Lator states.
- What is the reason for this hypersensitivity to Israel?
- Some have raised the question that this is for the new government, is it?
- Israel's territorial sovereignty has been violated in several wars by Arab countries, yet Israel is condemned as the occupier. Whose sovereignty is violated when an Israeli government member goes anywhere in Jerusalem?
Ending conflicts through compromise
- Israel tried the "territory for peace" principle, which failed. Does this mean that this principle is not workable? A similar principle is now being proposed in the Ukrainian-Russian war, which is why the question is topical: can a military conflict be brought to a lasting end by means of territorial compromises? Or will this only embolden the enemy and lead to another war?
- What lessons can be drawn from Russia's historical behaviour, and how willing is Moscow to compromise in order to end a conflict?
Ukrainian-Russian front
- who will start 2023 from which position?
- Kirilo Budanov, the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, told US ABC television that they are no longer attacking the Russian army "by any means" only in the occupied territories, but "deeper and deeper" in the hinterland. What could the phrase "by any means necessary" mean, which Budanov said could be used in Crimea?
- What are Ukraine's options for deep-penetration attacks such as the one carried out last week against Engels airbase? What could be their targets and how could Russia respond?
- Valeriy Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, posted on Facebook that he had a telephone conversation on 3 January with General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US, who was briefed on the situation on the front. Ukrainian politicians and diplomats were already reporting to the allies on a daily basis, why did the military leaders have to consult each other now? What does this mean in practice? Could it be that from now on the Ukrainian army will be directly controlled from Washington? Or has this already been the case?
- Meanwhile, the Ukrainians say that Russia is also preparing for a major offensive in the coming months, and they also claim that Putin may order a general mobilisation. How realistic is this? Are there any signs of this?
- You wrote in a paper a few days ago that, overall, Ukraine faces much greater challenges than Russia, and you listed a number of them. Which of these asymmetric conditions could be decisive for the outcome of the war?
Wish-driven analysis and hard facts
- Over the past 10 months or more, countless analyses have been published on how disastrously badly the Russian military has performed, and we have repeatedly discussed the reality of these often wish-driven findings. I would now like to focus on just one element, the assessment of the Russian bombing campaign. How does it stand now, and why can the daily news reports on how many more missiles and drones have been destroyed by Ukrainian air defences be misleading?
- What could be the Russian strategy in the air?
- What can we expect from Western weapons systems?
- The growing threat of nuclear war has also been widely reported since the outbreak of the war. How do we deal with it when serious scientists make such serious assumptions? Are we really living on the brink of Armageddon every day, every hour? What do the realistic facts show?
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