If you thought the end was far away, it's not anymore.
Balázs Stumpf-Biró is co-founder of Cassee Climate Adaptation Consulting Ltd., which develops the Cassandra Programme to identify the impacts of climate change and support the adaptation process. He is the Hungarian representative of the Deep Adaptation movement, which emphasises mental preparedness, and creator of the Betyáros Világ podcast, which helps to shape attitudes. We talked to him about what lies ahead and what we need to prepare for. He did not paint a hopeful picture.
- "The only way to prepare is to talk openly about the possibility of our civilisation collapsing!" The quote is from an open letter, signed, I believe, by a number of international scientists. Did it have an impact?
- Indeed, hundreds of scientists, including Hungarians, have joined the Scholars Warning initiative. The letter made its way through the international press and then the issue went quiet. But this is not an isolated case. There is a good chance that the 2018 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - ed.) special report will be put on the agenda at COP26 in Glasgow in November... "Oh, we can wait for that", I say with bitter irony.
- So, obviously we don't have time. The situation is getting worse and worse. But perhaps most people have good reason to hope that with the right attitude and technology we can solve the problem of climate change... or do they?
- Unrealistic hope robs us of real opportunities because we waste precious time trying to prepare and reduce the physical and psychological damage we face.
The biggest problem with the popularity of the "we'll fix it" approach is that it makes it taboo to have an important dialogue about what we can do in the knowledge that we are unlikely to be able to solve the problem. The age we live in expects us to take a hopeful view of reality. Hopeful and hopeless are two sides of the same false coin.
It is not hope that we need to move on, but the free determination that comes from sincere sorrow.
- So what can a man do who wants to move on? Is there some kind of guide?
- In a 2018 study, Professor Jem Bendell of the University of Cumbria in the UK, highlighted that the majority of climate change researchers and practitioners assume that our current economic, social and political systems are resilient enough to adapt to the enormous challenges and thus survive unchanged.
He has coined the term 'deep adaptation' to describe a school of thought that, contrary to the above, accepts that the collapse of our natural and human systems is a real possibility, even in our lifetime.
What was really disturbing in the paper was the conclusion, drawn in simple, plain language, that "we've overdone it, my Believers", there is little we can do in any meaningful way here... except of course the most important thing, to prepare and begin to adapt to a fundamentally changing world.
- The question that immediately comes to mind about the deep adaptation movement is what is deep and what is it adapting to.
- When we talk about the disintegration or collapse of societies, we mean a significant and drastic change in our existing living conditions.
People who see this process as so likely that it is essentially inevitable or already unfolding use the term "deep down" to describe the process of finding answers. Deep, because it goes beyond the superficial, physical approach of "adapting to climate change", focusing on our own inner journey, as we will all have to deal with the spiritual burden of the difficulties that lie ahead. As people from all walks of our world and life become increasingly aware of the direction of events, they are gripped by anxiety and fear.
As the effects of climate chaos unfold, panic may lead to extreme responses from some. The mission of the 'Deep Appalachia' initiative is to help us find loving responses to our predicaments, thereby reducing the pain we face and perhaps saving something of our societies and natural environment.
- This is not very encouraging... but can people overcome their limitations and reverse these processes?
- We cannot stop it.
We cannot reverse it. Nor can we slow it down in any meaningful way. We have no choice but to adapt to accelerating change. Man as a mass is not able to transcend his own shadow, and especially in difficult circumstances, to make significant sacrifices in defence of higher values. The process is inevitable, because humanity cannot do enough, fast enough, to maintain and protect its own water and food supply from environmental impacts.
- Does this mean that food problems are also to be expected?
- Over the last three years, European agricultural yields have fallen by an average of 20-30%. Only three crops - wheat, maize and rice - account for nearly 60% of the calories consumed by humanity. Only 12 plant species and 5 animal species account for 75% of the food produced on Earth. At least 3-4 of the 4-5 major cereal producing regions of the world will be exposed to severe weather extremes that will have a profound impact on their productivity within the next 5-15 years.
And our global food reserves, if they were evenly distributed (and they never have been), would last for 103 days. If we eat the reserves for livestock, the number of days is 247...
- But what is the reason for the irreversibility of the process?
- We are heading inexorably down a road from which we cannot, despite our best intentions, turn back. But in fact... we don't want to. There are many reasons for this. I will mention three really important ones. The first and most important is the human being.
On the savannah, in the days of our ancestors, survival depended on squeezing as much as possible from available resources, taking short-term advantage, thinking locally, dominating one's environment, making one's own and one's smaller group's daily life as comfortable as possible, and confronting rival tribes. This programme is still running and we are no longer able to transcend it at the level of the masses.
The second one-way dead end in the course of our destiny is energy. For the energy strategy on which industrial civilization was built has failed.
The fact is that we are about to fall into the so-called energy gap.
Existing hydrocarbon reserves are dwindling, and the less that is available, the more it costs to extract it. Our non-energy resources, such as minerals, drinking water, arable land, are also dwindling.
And finally, the third factor is the scale and speed of the processes that surround us. There are three basic concepts we need to be aware of in this context. The first is Overshoot. In short, it is when the population and consumption of a population - in this case, humanity - exceeds the sustainable carrying capacity of its environment.
The second is the Feedback Loop. By positive feedback we mean when the elements of the process interact with each other so that it is self-generating.
The third is the so-called Tipping Point. This is when the state of a process reaches a critical stage from which it becomes self-sustaining and can no longer be reversed.
- What will be the consequences of these processes?
- As a result of the climate change process, we distinguish between primary consequences and secondary effects. In the case of the former, it is simply that extreme weather events will increase significantly in frequency and intensity. They are striking with a frequency and intensity not previously experienced.
Over the past two decades, heat waves have increased by 33%, floods by 20% and droughts by 17%, according to one study. And the process will really accelerate from this decade onwards.
In the case of secondary impacts, more than 460 impacts have already been identified in an excellent systematic way. These cover every aspect of our lives: food and water, health, infrastructure, economy and security. The latter will be felt very soon. In the very areas where population growth will be highest in the period ahead, the impossibility of life could force hundreds of millions of people to leave their homelands. And when so many people set off, they will arrive at the cost of millions of deaths, enough to have an impact.
And it is only a matter of time before wars break out over dwindling resources. Just as in the time of our ancestors, only this time not with a stone axe.
- What will this mean for our daily lives, for our societies?
- When we see the increasingly extreme mass movements in the world's major cities, let us not lose sight of one thing: the risks and the events that are expected have not yet materialised... there is water and energy, food is available in the shops, public safety, the banking system has not collapsed, and there is a very high level of health care.
So, when we see masses of people taking to the streets because they are dissatisfied with their lot in life, and expressing this by breaking, smashing, setting fires... and behaving in an extremely violent way, let us wonder what will happen when all these things happen?
What can we expect from the vast masses of our fellow human beings when they have nothing to eat and the ghost money they thought they had is no longer available to them? And, finally, do we have any idea, based on what we are experiencing now, how close this might be to our present lives?
- Ouch. I can almost only think, what am I going to do now, what will happen to me?!
- Almost everyone who is facing their future has these questions. And although I feel that people need some level of answers, anyone who offers people a solution, a hopeful promise of hope (in the wonderful English term 'hopium'), is deceiving them. Yes, they are deceiving... because they are depriving them of the opportunity to face reality honestly and courageously and make the really important decisions about their lives.
- How to adapt deeply?
- There are two ways of deep adaptation...
Internal adaptation: exploring the emotional, intellectual and spiritual consequences of a life characterised by permanent damage to the fabric of society or a complete breakdown of its systems.
External adaptation: the development of practical measures to enable a viable life to be created during and after the collapse of society.
Deep Adaptation" uses four concepts, known as the 4Rs, and their associated questions to show the steps and tasks that need to be taken in the adaptation process. These are:
- Resilience: How do we keep what we value and don't want to lose?
- Relinquishment: What do we need to let go of in order not to make things worse for ourselves and others?
- Restoration: What do we need to bring back into our lives to help us to face the difficulties that come?
- Reconciliation: With whom or with what do we need to be reconciled, once we have truly realised our own mortality?
Understanding and coming to terms with the possibility of collapse is an emotionally demanding process. The most important support can come from seeking the company of others in similar situations.
It is liberating to know that we are not alone, that we can share our thoughts with others who can exchange further information and experiences with us.
- This is undoubtedly true. But is the necessary information available in Hungarian? Where can someone who is not very good in foreign languages start?
- It is a real pleasure for me that Deep Adaptation Hungary on Facebook has become the second largest and most active group in the international Deep Adaptation network. And the Hungarian language website is already under construction. We need to step out of the enchanted world of social media and overcome the addiction it represents.
We are going to create a forum that answers most of the questions people have about the unfolding social breakdown.
More importantly, a platform where they can organize themselves both geographically and thematically, walk around a particular topic, where anyone who aspires to be prepared can learn the basics of adaptation.
We've launched the Betyáros Világ podcast because it's becoming clear to more and more of us... this is exactly what we can expect.
And if we're going to live in a world that's changing beyond recognition, we're going to need virtues like outlaw honour. So what the Beagle World can really help us with is inner preparation. To deal with the issue, to know the facts, to embrace the change. Because that is a prerequisite for understanding the challenge. And that is the first step on the road to awareness.
We have also created the Cassandra Programme, whose mission is to enable any organisation, community or individual to prepare for the fact that, as a result of a combination of many factors, our living conditions will change significantly and we will have to adapt to the new conditions to the best of our ability and intentions in order to maintain a livable life.
- I wish I could forget the whole conversation... it will be difficult to concentrate on my ordinary little life...
- As we become more aware of the context that threatens our existence, the more we feel the urge to deal with the everyday, the so-called "real" things instead. But as time goes on, it becomes harder and harder to deny what we experience, because as our attention turns to reality, we will see its justification everywhere, both locally and around the world. I believe that anyone is free to make any decision about their life - less so if they are a parent - and that it is not good or bad, but theirs. But they can only do so authentically in the light of having faced reality squarely and made a decision one way or the other with that in mind.
As time goes on and the processes unfold before our eyes, more and more of us will be at a loss, with questions to ask, and how many of us will then be there to support the other may well be the difference between fate and destiny... Let us never forget: all we can decide is what to do with the time we have been given.
