12 Jan 2023 - Robert C. Castel Big risk for the West with the delivery of the Leopard-2 Weeks Originals
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"The novelty is the transfer of tanks, the Western tanks, but it is not worth delivering these assets to Ukraine in homeopathic doses, dripping them in so that they have a few more pieces of something that will then very quickly wear out, but if NATO can put together a package that includes all the states that use Leopards, then you can build a Leopard brigade or a Leopard tank regiment from that, which is already a very significant fighting force. However, this increases the risk that advanced Western technology could fall into Russian hands" - this is how security policy expert Robert C. Castel, senior fellow at Neokohn, assessed the Polish president's announcement that Poland is ready to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine "in the framework of broad international cooperation".
Russian-Iranian presidential talks
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi discussed by phone the settlement of Syria and joint projects.
- What is the situation in Syria? What are Russia and Iran doing there? Is no one there interested in sovereignty?
- What new projects could Moscow and Tehran have in common?
Topic: General Armageddon demoted
The war in Ukraine has been spearheaded by Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the supreme military commander of the Russian armed forces, with the former commander-in-chief, Sergei Surovkin, aka General Armageddon, demoted to his deputy by Defence Minister Soygu.
- What message does this change send? Has General Armageddon also failed?
- What do Russian military bloggers, considered hawks, think of the change of personnel?
Wagner Group and the siege of Soledar
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, announced that his gunmen have taken control of the entire territory of the town of Soledar in the Donetsk region, with fighting still raging in the centre.
- Why is the capture of Soledar important for the Russians?
- Could this be the starting point for a larger offensive?
- What is the role of the Wagner group in the war?
Subject: supply of tanks to Ukraine
Poland has decided to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine as part of an international coalition, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced.
- What does this Polish offer mean?
- How much more help is it than the French and American tanks announced last week? - What more can a Leopard do? Is it capable of defensive or offensive operations?
- What does it mean that Poland is providing Leopards in an international coalition?
- Is there a logic to Western arms transfers during nearly 11 months of war?
Topic: Western criticism of the Ukrainian leadership
The Ukrainians are suffering huge casualties in their siege of Bahmut, completely senselessly, putting the whole war at risk - more and more people in the West think so, most recently in an article in Die Welt. One expert told the paper that the Ukrainians are losing too many soldiers and weapons, leaving no resources for offensive operations.
- How realistic is this report? Are the Western allies really dissatisfied with the performance of the Ukrainians?
- Are the Ukrainian units trained in the West having any tangible impact? Have they reached the front?
- The Ukrainian General Staff is in regular consultation with the Western allies. What can they do to strengthen the Ukrainian army, apart from supplying weapons?
- How long can Ukraine keep up its manpower? We are already hearing that they are calling up people in the sixth or seventh round, which I suppose means a lower quality.
Topic.
- Moscow's aim is to ensure at all costs that Ukraine can no longer pose a military and political threat to Russia.
- How can it achieve this by realistic - i.e. unconventional - means?
- Why does it not bother the Russians if the whole of Ukraine is reduced to rubble in the war?
Topic: Chances of ending the war
You said in an interview that "in order to see any prospect of an end to the war, you first need to see a significant victory on one side, which will make both sides in the war think twice before they decide that it might be better to negotiate".
- To break the stalemate, one side must attack. Who would rather do that?
- President Zelensky consistently promises a Ukrainian victory, a full restoration of the country's sovereignty. Who are these messages for? Do Ukrainians still believe in Zelensky?
- What does NATO want out of this war?
What are the consequences for Europe of prolonging the war?
Topic: Viewer questions
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