13 Sept 2023 - The Great Spring Sweetheart - Two writings by Robert C. Castel from Spring 2023, confirmed by time
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These days, more sceptical analysts are multiplying, no longer fully confident of the overwhelming success of the great Ukrainian counter-offensive, especially with only 30-40 days left to complete it, even according to US Chief of Staff Mark Milley. However, one has to look with a magnifying glass for analysts who warned in the spring that Ukraine lacked the basic means to achieve its military objectives.
Although many politicians and analysts also tend to play on the short-term memory of the public and the press, fortunately the memory of the internet and the written word preserves earlier statements. For the sake of memory, I would not quote analysts who predicted a great Ukrainian victory and a total Russian collapse, not a piece of writing that has stood the test of time.
Robert C. Castel is one such analyst whose views can be traced back in image, sound and writing. His spring interview with him on the Ukrainian counteroffensive was recalled in a recent broadcast of Chronicle of War, the link to which is in the description here.
I have now turned the pages of a collection of essays entitled The Vertical Coffin, a book which contains several articles published in the spring which analyse the chances of what was then expected to be the spring, and eventually the summer, of a major Ukrainian offensive. Two of these now follow, from the pen of Robert C. Castel.
The Possibility of Ukrainian Victory and the Logic of Campaigns (18 March 2023)
Ukraine's path to victory is not this way, or a reply to Edward Luttwak (17 May 2023)
Robert C. Castel: The Chronicle of War Part 12 - The Great Spring Sweep
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