17 Apr 2023 - Robert C. Castel Ukraine's air defences will soon be depleted, leaving space for the Russian air force
Robert C. Castel Security Policy Expert, 2023.04.17.
The World Beyond Ukraine - Coffee House Conversation with Robert C. Castel
Scruton Café, 5 May 2023 12.00
Today's poll: do you think Ukraine will succeed in expelling the Russians from Crimea? https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxJiNTJwBvKF7vsZS8N3dhbKSRnIBsx4Rx
Signed copies of the second, expanded edition of The Vertical Coffin are available on the author's website: www.robertccastel.hu
and also by email at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..
Robert C. Castel all Weeks interview:
Topics of today's conversation:
Pentagon Papers
How viable is it for a 21-year-old cyber defense reserve commando to have access to such top-secret material?
Now that several days have passed since the leaks, how far have you been able to ascertain the authenticity of the documents?
What does it mean that military and political intelligence information is mixed in the documents?
What does it suggest that the investigation has not even begun and the media already know, or think they know, everything?
One of the documents states that Ukrainian air defences may be depleted. How realistic is this assumption? And what could be the consequences?
Could this be a decisive moment in the war?
Foreign Affairs: the West needs a new strategy in Ukraine
Let me quote just one paragraph from the long article:
"From Ukraine's point of view, it would be unwise to continue stubbornly pursuing an outright military victory, which could turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory. Ukrainian forces have already suffered over 100,000 casualties, including the best soldiers. The Ukrainian economy has shrunk by some 30 per cent, poverty rates have soared and Russia continues to bomb the country's critical infrastructure. Around eight million Ukrainians have fled the country and millions more have been forced to flee internally. Ukraine should not risk destroying itself for goals that are probably unattainable."
So far, these have been classified as heretical ideas, which only Kremlin propaganda can spout. What has changed in recent weeks?
Could the leaking of the Pentagon files be a preparation for this new strategy?
How can the Ukrainian leadership be brought into line with this new perspective, which obviously involves compromises that President Zelensky and his team now refuse to hear about?
Prigozhin's statement: he too would pull out of the war. Is this part of the new strategy?
The future of Europe
What are President Macron's chances of achieving strategic autonomy for Europe? His statement, for example, was immediately rejected not only by Washington but also by Germany.
Mass demonstrations in Prague: why don't we see this elsewhere in Europe?
World war, nuclear war
Many, including the Hungarian prime minister, argue that further escalation of the war could sooner or later involve the use of some form of nuclear weapon.
From a political point of view, this warning is understandable, but from a military point of view, is there a real danger that the world could be dragged into a nuclear war? What levels of decision-making precede such a move by the nuclear powers?
The future of America
https://neokohn.hu/2023/04/15/victor-davis-hanson-amerika-jakobinus-forradalma/
American military historian Victor Davis Hanson has written a remarkable article, reviewed by Neokohn. According to him, a radical Jacobin revolution is taking place in the United States, and its outcome will determine America's future after 2024. Hanson writes that, like their Jacobin predecessors, today's woke revolutionaries want to change everything from the rule of law, the electoral system, the Supreme Court, change the meaning of words, abolish Election Day by expanding mail-in voting, and so on.
What might this upheaval do to the global balance of power?
The role of India
India continues to see no place for Ukraine at the G20 summit in New Delhi in September. A spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of the Asian country holding the rotating presidency said that Volodymyr Zelensky is not on the list of invitees and for the time being, the Indian Prime Minister is not planning to visit Ukraine. Kiev is not willing to accept this and has sent its deputy foreign minister to New Delhi to bring India, which is neutral on the issue of the war, to Ukraine's side. Why didn't Emine Japarova have much chance?
Image source.
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