28 Nov 2022 - Robert C. Castel in Budapest_ Changing the face of war _ Weeks Originals
Robert C. Castel in Budapest, in the Weeks studio
BOOK SIGNING INFORMATION: https://bit.ly/3VszjUC
Topics of discussion:
A little personal introduction, how did you and your family come to Israel, how did you manage to keep the language, the close connection to Hungarian culture?
As an Israeli citizen born in Partium, how does it feel to talk to Hungarians in the Felvidék, Dunaszerdahely, about the war in Ukraine affecting the people of Transcarpathia?
What do you consider yourself first and foremost: a soldier, a security analyst, a journalist?
Where do you get your information for your analysis? Do you have sources that are not accessible to the layman?
In addition to the many compliments we receive, there are those who are keen to see you as a pundit on one side or the other, one of two comments below the other, one labelling you a US-NATO propagandist and the other an agent from Moscow. I suppose you have encountered such labels elsewhere, how do you deal with it when the facts lead to conclusions favourable to one side, which goes against wishful thinking? In such cases, do you have to do a bit of tweaking, explain "one way or the other", or do you have to state the even inconvenient reality?
And how can the Israeli experience be incorporated into the analysis in a way that is relevant and credible to a wide audience, many of whom have many different views on Israeli domestic politics or the Israeli-Arab-Palestinian conflict?
Vertical Coffin - when did you have time to write it in this very busy period?
It seems risky to write about an unresolved, tragic conflict in book form, what can be written that will stand the test of time?
The book follows the Russian-Ukrainian war chronologically. In the public mind, 24 February was like a bolt from the blue. But when did the war really begin? In 2014? Or later?
Putin recently said that if the Donbas had joined Russia earlier, the bloodshed could have been avoided. Was this a reality without war?
Merkel admitted that she had already lost her influence with Putin in 2021. Could she influence him earlier? What is her role and responsibility?
What have been the stages of the war so far and where are we now?
Who is closer to achieving his strategic goals?
Is Brzezinski's thesis about the dismemberment of Russia still valid? Does this influence US policy today?
According to Scott Ritter, former US Marine intelligence officer and UN weapons inspector, "Ukraine cannot win this war, it is in the realm of fantasy." Is it an impossible scenario that Russia gives up the occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea?
Why does Zelinsky and his closest allies, such as Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, insist that there are two options: 'either Ukraine wins and wins the war or the whole of Europe loses'.
After the mid-term elections in the US, there seemed to be a willingness to negotiate (Mark Milley), but now those voices have died down again, why?
Some argue that it is a greater risk to negotiate with Putin than to continue the war with him, for example analysts at the RAND Coorporation argue that the diplomatic route does not necessarily lead to ending the war or avoiding escalation on the basis of historical precedents, and that it would be a bad message to make a deal with Putin now in the wake of the military successes in Ukraine. How do you see it?
What do you see as the better chance, Ukraine exhausting itself in attacks on the energy sector over the winter or Putin running out of time and therefore eventually pulling the government aside?
What global conflicts are looming in 2023 besides (or as a result of) the Russia-Ukraine war? What else could be in store?
Viewer questions:
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