31 May 2023 - Robert C. Castel_ NATO did not realise that it risked nuclear war by provoking Russia
Our new series, The Chronicle of War, analysed by Robert C. Castel, has been launched. Part 1:
Topics of our broadcast:
01:09 Moscow drone attack
What are the differences and similarities with the attack on the Kremlin?
Ukraine is not responsible but "enjoys watching" - What is the reality, who could be responsible for such actions? Could there be Russian "freedom fighters"?
07:17 Attacks also continue along the border, with a hit on an oil refinery in Krasnodar this morning and another attack in the Belgorod region. Do these actions have only psychological significance or can they be interpreted in military terms?
09:30 A new development is that the British Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, has recently stated openly that he supports attacks on targets in Russia. "Ukraine is also free to launch attacks in self-defence against targets on Russian territory". Are they deliberately trying to escalate the war? And if so, what could be the purpose? How is Washington reacting?
14:12 NATO troop reinforcements
Meanwhile, NATO is stepping up its presence on the eastern front, as the Lithuanian president has urged. German troops in particular are stationed here in NATO lines in preparation for a possible Russian attack. Where is NATO most at risk of direct confrontation with the Russian army?
16:29 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says there are no signs that the allies are tired of supporting Ukraine and that plans to help Ukraine transition from Soviet-era weaponry to modern NATO weaponry will be discussed at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July. These plans seem to go beyond the war that is going on - what is the purpose of this?
19:30 It is also revealing that the largest British arms manufacturer, BAE Systems, is planning to build a factory in Ukraine. What does it say that the first investment in a devastated country is an arms factory?
20:40 However, Olaf Scholz says it is unrealistic to expect a military victory in Ukraine. Specifically, he said that "it does not seem that the war can be decided on the battlefield" and he also said that he would like to talk again with Putin, with whom he last spoke last December. In what direction do such statements and initiatives point?
21:52 Conflicting intelligence assessments
According to British intelligence, since the beginning of May, Russian forces have been reacting to the Ukrainians' actions rather than pursuing their own objectives. A US analyst recently expressed the stark opposite of the British Ministry of Defence's findings.
What is the reality of the situation?
How does this relate to the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive, which has already begun or is about to begin?
29:16 The strategic-technological decline of the West
The Ukrainian-Russian war is also seen by many as a kind of test case, where weapons systems and military strategies can be tested in real conditions. Almost every week we hear of new wonder weapons with loud names that fail to produce breakthroughs.
Why is the Western strategy of technological superiority not working?
Ukrainian unpreparedness - Russian counter-intelligence
How can the West change these handicaps?
34:12 Kosovo conflict
Hungarian KFOR soldiers have been the main victims of the Serbian-Albanian conflict so far. Meanwhile, NATO is deploying another 700 troops to the region. And the Serbian army is also on high alert. Can we talk about a war situation in the Balkans?
Whose interest is it to escalate another front? Russian distraction with Serbian help? What scenarios can we expect?
As the war in Ukraine drags on, is there a growing danger that another string will snap somewhere? What is the greater danger: if another ethnic-power conflict erupts somewhere, or if one erupts along civilizational fault lines, as is now threatening in the Balkans?
42:01 Viewer questions
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