9 Dec 2022 - Robert C. Castel Zelensky born military leader, but Putin's Man of the Year of the Week Originals
Friday's guest on Weeks Originals is once again security policy analyst Robert C. Castel, senior fellow at Neokohn
Robert C. Castel's new book, Vertical Coffin, came out of the press a week ago, but is practically sold out.
FOR INFORMATION ON SIGNED BOOKS, CLICK HERE: https://bit.ly/3VszjUC
In this book he lists in 10 points the assumptions Western politicians and intelligence services made before the war. Some of these have since been clearly disproved by time, but others are still insisted on today.
However, it would be unfair not to talk about the other side's erroneous assumptions, which have not been realised. Compared to the wish-driven Western positions that are prominent in the media and on social media, the Russians seem to be much less specific about them, making it harder to hold them accountable for their errors. Could this be deliberate in their communication?
But let's also look at some Russian misses:
Zelensky and the Kiev leadership's underlings flee to the West, and within days a pro-Russian puppet government is set up. This is all the more surprising because the former KGB was notorious for its ability to profile its targets accurately. Surely such analyses of Ukrainian leaders are being made now, so why were they so wrong?
Zelensky is now being named Man of the Year by a succession of Western newspapers, from Time magazine in the US to Politico in Brussels. The choice is not surprising, and understandable, since this year has been all about him and Putin, at least in communications. Yet it seems very conscious of how, from the night of the invasion onwards, Zelensky has settled into the role of war leader, donning a military green drill suit instead of a suit and tie, growing a beard and so on. Could he have been prepared for this beforehand, or, as the Time review of him put it, did he have an instinctive, intuitive ability to sense what the public expected of him?
For a long time, his appearances and utterances were fully in line with the Western narrative of war, but in recent months, especially after the missile incident in Poland, there has been a discernible contradiction between the Ukrainian position and the US-European assessment. Could this now be good news for Putin?
In addition to Zelensky, Time has also named the "spirit of Ukraine", the Ukrainian people's spirit, as its Man of the Year. Was the Russian calculation wrong about how resilient the Ukrainian population would be to the blows of war? What role does patriotic sentiment play in this and what role does martial law play?
The readiness of the Ukrainian forces also surprised the Russians, although they had obviously studied this thoroughly. Why were they wrong?
Another Russian assumption may have been that Europe was frightened of energy weapons. It is harder to balance the scales on this, but can we say that, dwindling but not broken, Europe is not holding out for a break from Russian energy?
Soviet disruption techniques worked well in the West during the Cold War, as we saw in the mass anti-war and anti-NATO peace movements, among others. Today, however, it is absent, at least not visibly. Why?
And let's be fair, during the war, the analysts missed the mark from time to time. In fairness, so as not to push others to the edge of the carpet, I ask you, what do you see differently today than you have articulated or written down over the year?
Finally, let us talk about the new element of Ukrainian air strikes, not only in Crimea, but also in the depths of Russia. What could be the purpose and the outcome of this?
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