24 Jun 2023 - Robert C. Castel_ The Prigozhin riot is currently taking place in the information space, it is not yet 1917
Who holds the Russian nuclear weapons - among other things, we asked Robert C. Castle in our quick analysis.
MUSICIANS RIOTING - FIRST IMPRESSIONS
1. THE PLACE - It is too early to draw any conclusions.
2.
3. THE CONTEXT - The backdrop to the mutiny is not a catastrophic Russian loss, but a political-power tug-of-war within the elite.
4. THE TRIGGER - The most likely "trigger" is the contract forced on the Free Forces to sign with the Russian Ministry of Defence.
For Mr Prigozhin, this would have meant the loss of his power base.
5. THE SCENARIO - Several scenarios are possible. The most interesting is the hypothesis that what we are seeing is merely a smoke screen. The question is: what is it covering and is it related to the flight of the Belarusian president to the north? One can speculate.
6. PARTIES- be careful with historical analogies. What we see so far is not the Russian version of the coup attempt in Turkey. The optics of the news are completely different for the moment. No fire visible, no blood visible. The fight is in the information space.
Cover image source: shutterstck/puzzlepix
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