18 Oct 2023 - Robert C. Castel on the hospital in Gaza, the fate of the hostages, what the US, Russia, Iran, China are doing now_

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THE THIRD, EXPANDED EDITION OF THE VERTICAL COFFIN IS OUT
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Interview with security policy expert Robert C. Castel.
Topics:
Gaza hospital attack.
What happened, what evidence does Israel have? Whose narrative wins? Is independent verification possible, because it seems that the world does not believe the IDF alone? How does this incident affect Operation Ironclad?
Why can Hamas/Islamic Jihad still launch rockets after 12 days?
How does the Hamas human shield work? Is it possible to leave the zone and if so, where? What is Egypt doing?
Who controls Gaza today? What are the risks of allowing aid supplies in?
Israeli options. What has been achieved so far?
Why has the withdrawal been postponed / cancelled? What was the original plan and what has changed in the meantime? What should Israel take into account: hostages, Gaza civilians, northern front, international reactions?
How to defeat Hamas? What counts as a victory?
Evacuated settlements in the south and north, what happened to the 500,000 people displaced?
Hamas options: what can it do with the hostages?
Should we fear that some of the hostages will be smuggled out of Gaza? Is there a realistic chance of a hostage rescue?
Is there a realistic prospect of hostage rescue?
Who can Hamas widen the front? What is Hezbollah's calculus? What is holding it back / what could draw it in? How can Iranian threats (pre-emptive strike) be assessed? Would Iran have an interest in intervening now?
Biden visit: what was the original objective and what can be salvaged from it after the Arab summit cancellation? What are America's expectations of Israel?
Terror threat worldwide: all Israelis must leave Turkey, terror alert has been raised in Europe. What could this entail?
Geopolitics
What is the perspective of the major powers in the conflict? What does the US want, why is it mobilising in the region, what does it expect? Does it want to protect its own interests or would it join Israel in a war?
What is Russia's calculus? How much is Putin beholden to Iran? Is Tehran listening to Moscow? What about Syria? Can Israel still prevent weapons and missiles from getting through Syria to Lebanon?
What about the other players? China, Turkey, Global South, EU (internal debate on Gaza/Polish elections), UN, Vatican?
The forgotten war in Ukraine. How does the diverted attention, divided military support affect the Ukrainian options?
President Zelensky tried to link the two wars, but there seems to be no takers. Can this force Ukraine to compromise? How much does the Middle East crisis help Russia? How can they exploit this?
We also cover the news of the war in Ukraine in more detail in our News of the Wars column, which appears every morning here on our channel.
War News:

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